The government intends to keep doors open for future governments to adjust the program as negotiations and delivery timelines unfold.

Canada is considering purchasing 12 German Type 212CD submarines in two batches, eight upfront and four later, to preserve financial flexibility and enable potential adjustments.

Sofiya Sapeha of the Defence Investment Agency said negotiations with suppliers are ongoing and that she cannot comment on contract content or status due to active procurement processes.

Analysts warn that batching could reduce economy-of-scale benefits and overall economic gains unless the full commitment is made upfront, though batching is seen as a risk-mitigation approach used in other shipbuilding programs.

Norway and Germany stress the strategic importance of the deal for NATO and relations, with discussions covering production slots and potential investments and joint development efforts.

Canada’s navy plans to replace the aging Victoria-class, patrol its three-ocean coastline, and participate in allied missions, including in the Indo-Pacific.

Deliveries are not expected until the mid-2030s and could span more than a decade, influencing whether to commit to full procurement now.

Negotiations involve Canadian federal officials, TKMS and Kongsberg, with meetings in Ottawa and Europe, continuing since a September European round.

Ottawa meetings included federal officials, the Defence Investment Agency, and representatives from TKMS and Kongsberg, with discussions ongoing.

The procurement targets 12 submarines to replace the Victoria-class, with upfront costs of about $20–$24 billion and total lifecycle costs potentially exceeding $100 billion over roughly 20 years.

Prime Minister and government spokespeople reiterate the pledge to buy up to 12 submarines to maximize security and industrial benefits.

German officials are assessing how a reduced order might affect Canada’s promised $86 billion in economic investment tied to the submarine program.