Despite concerns over valuation, investor Gary Black highlights two key catalysts that could boost Tesla's stock before year's end.

Tesla faces ongoing market and technological challenges, but upcoming developments could positively influence its stock performance through the end of 2025.

Tesla's stock surge has been driven by delivery expectations, but Black anticipates it may decline in Q4 as hedge funds unwind bullish positions.

Tesla recently discontinued its most affordable Cybertruck RWD variant due to poor sales, and the company's US EV market share has fallen below 40% for the first time in eight years.

Tesla has revised its Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology's definition, aiming for milestones like 10 million active subscriptions and deploying 1 million robotaxis, following Elon Musk's $1 trillion compensation plan.

The first catalyst is Tesla's Q3 delivery estimate of around 470,000 units, which could surpass expectations and impact EV credit expiry effects.

The second catalyst involves Musk's prediction that safety monitors will be removed from Tesla's robotaxis in Austin and the Bay Area by year-end, indicating confidence in autonomous vehicle technology.

Tesla is ramping up production at its Berlin Gigafactory due to strong demand in Europe, the Middle East, and Taiwan, despite earlier European sales declines caused partly by competition from BYD.

Elon Musk emphasizes that scaling FSD and Tesla's humanoid robot Optimus are central to future value, with Optimus expected to contribute 80% of Tesla's valuation.

Analyst Dan Ives predicts AI and autonomous driving could represent a $1 trillion market opportunity for Tesla, highlighting Musk's aggressive push to lead in the AI race.

Tesla maintains strong operational performance, ranking in the 62nd percentile for quality and 86th percentile for momentum, despite market share concerns.

Ross Gerber warns that recent positive stock momentum might be short-lived, predicting a downturn in two weeks once the federal EV tax credit of $7,500 expires, potentially slowing EV sales.

Even with fleet expansion plans, Black estimates that a 5,000-vehicle Robotaxi fleet would have minimal earnings impact in 2026, with EPS of only 8-10 cents.