Elon Musk Forecasts AI to Outpace Human Smarts in Five Years
April 9, 2024
Tesla CEO Elon Musk anticipates artificial intelligence surpassing human intelligence within five years.
Musk notes the necessity of extensive processing power and electricity for training advanced AI, mentioning xAI's Grok model that could require up to 100,000 Nvidia H100 GPUs.
He acknowledges the rising competition from Chinese electric vehicle makers and the critical role of electricity in AI development.
Most corporate futurists remain unconvinced about AI achieving superintelligence soon, contrasting with Musk's views.
Technological progress, including Nvidia's upcoming Blackwell B200 GPU, is expected to facilitate training of more complex language models.
Musk's AI predictions are met with skepticism by some experts, like AI critic Grady Booch and researcher Dr. Margaret Mitchell, who question the timeline and societal impact of such advancements.
Summary based on 26 sources
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Sources

The Guardian • Apr 9, 2024
Elon Musk predicts superhuman AI will be smarter than people next year
Insider • Apr 9, 2024
Elon Musk says AI will outsmart humans by 2026
Ars Technica • Apr 9, 2024
Elon Musk: AI will be smarter than any human around the end of next year
Entrepreneur • Apr 9, 2024
Elon Musk Says AI Technology Will Be Smarter Than 'Any Human' By 'Next Year'